On breaking news of an attempted coup plot in Turkey, the Lira dropped five percent on Friday.
As Yra Harris says, money is fascist. It craves stability.
The paradox is that fortunes in the markets are made during unstable times.
We can expect a lot of volatility with USDTRY and EURTRY, as the Ergodan regime shores up public perception of its rule.
But when the smoke settles, what actually changed in Turkey?
In Turkey, there is a deep, vast social divide between the Islamic and secular.
This divide is manifested geopolitically with the secularists traditonally controlling the military and bureaucracies and the Islamists controlling the elected political institutions.
Because of this coup, Ergodan has been able to arrest THOUSANDS of his secular opponents across all branches of government.
In effect and under the guise of a failed coup d’etat, the Islamists have secured their rule over Turkey by an order of magnitude.
The benefits for Ergodan of the failed plot have been so pronounced that many have suggested he may have ordered or engineered it in some way.
What effect this will have on world affairs, NATO and the EU is not something I will speculate on yet.
However, for the purposes of the FOREX market, this means — once the dust settles – the risk of political instability affecting the Lira will be at a five to ten year low.
The regime’s rule is secure.
The question is: what will they do next?