WHY I BET $1000 ON DONALD TRUMP

Charles Munger is Warren Buffett’s right hand man.

Together, the two have run Berkshire Hathaway for the last half-century. Together they turned it into a multi-billion dollar investment firm.

In Mr. Munger’s book, “Poor Charlie’s Almanack”, he says the human brain works in models.

We have our models of how we see and interpret the world. Our life experiences serve as data for our model.

With some people’s models, data that doesn’t fit gets filtered out. This is called cognitive dissonance.

With other people, data that doesn’t fit the model is reeaxmined.

Sometimes, the model is changed.

Some of the most popular models right now are race, wealth, gender, sexuality, and religion.

How you see the world determines your beliefs. Your beliefs determine your actions. Your actions today determine your life tomorrow.

A year ago, I decided to try a new mental model.

Let’s call it the Persuasion model.

This model comes with a few core beliefs:

1.) We are irrational 99.999% of the time.
2.) The “right” belief is the one that works for you.
3.) If you push the right buttons, people (including yourself) can be made to believe (almost) anything.

And remember that what people believe determines what they do and who they are.

Have you ever tried rewiring your belief structure?

It’s tricky business.

The first step involves forgetting.

You see, most of the thoughts you have aren’t your own.

Next time you “think” something or have an “opinion”, remember where that thought comes from.

Ask yourself why it’s there. Does it help you?

Perhaps someone else — possibly a master of persuasion — planted that seed in your mind.

Once you understand persusasion, you can’t rule out that possibility.

To build my new model, I read over 100 books on persuasion, behavioral psychology, marketing and hypnosis.

With my new model in place, the next step was to test it.

(Most people don’t bother to test their models. Instead, they just wander why other people don’t believe what they believe.)

For Charlie Munger, testing his model means investing.

If his investments make money, his mental model is correct. If he loses money, he reexamines the model.

For me, testing my model meant a series of bets — actions with objective results.

One of those bets was on Trump, who is a master of persuasion.

An election is a contest of persuasion.

My bet was that Trump’s skill trumped Hillary’s, and that “rational” considerations like policy and experience don’t matter.

Yes, the bet is a test of the Persuasion world view.

But there is more to the story than that…

The second — and more important — part of the bet involves you.

You see, I wanted YOUR attention.

Under the Persuasion mental model of the world, I knew writing about Trump would get your attention.

Adding some money to mix would hold your interest for months.

The months of testing my new mental model of the world have produced results that are, well, unbelievable.

And I bet that what has happened for me can happen for you as well.

That’s why I put $1000 of my own money on the line.

I did it for you. So you would read this post and especially tomorrow’s post.

Tomorrow’s post is all about you.

So tune in tomorrow.

You’ll see what this mental model has done for me and what it will do for you.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *